How does the Fed’s October 28 decision affect the Greater Seattle real estate market?
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, 2026, so the decision itself changed little for Greater Seattle buyers and sellers. Mortgage rates follow long-term bond yields more closely than the Fed’s rate, and the 30-year average was 7.24% on October 29, down from 7.40% in mid-October but still above 6.17% a year ago. On the Eastside, the bigger story is supply: months of supply rose 36.6% to 52.4% in Bothell, Kenmore, Woodinville and Kirkland, which gives buyers more choice and rewards sellers who price and prepare well.
The Fed did not move on October 28, and mortgage rates moved anyway. That is the first thing to understand about the Greater Seattle real estate market right now.
The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10 to 2 vote. The two dissenters did not want a cut. They wanted a quarter-point increase. The statement described the economy as expanding at a strong pace and said inflation remains elevated.
So read this as a pause, not a turn. Markets are widely watching the Fed’s December 8 to 9 meeting for another increase.
Why the Fed Did Not Set Your Mortgage Rate
The Fed sets a short-term rate. Your 30-year mortgage takes its cue from long-term bond yields, and the 10-year Treasury yield has been sitting close to 5%.
That is why the two can drift apart. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average was 7.40% in mid-October, then fell to 7.24% on October 29, its lowest level of the month. The 15-year average was 6.60%. A year ago, the 30-year average was 6.17%.
Here is what that means in dollars. On a $1,000,000 loan, principal and interest runs about $6,815 a month at 7.24%, compared with about $6,105 at 6.17%. That is roughly $710 more than a year ago. The recent dip from 7.40% saves about $109 a month: welcome, but not a reason to rush or to wait.
These are national averages for conventional loans. Your own rate depends on your loan type, credit and down payment, and larger loans can price differently.
What the Eastside Numbers Say
Higher rates are only half of the picture. The other half is how much choice buyers have, and on the Eastside that has changed quickly.
| Area | Average sales price | Days on market | Months of supply | Showings to pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bothell | $884,822 (-13.8%) | 45 (+21.6%) | 4.9 (+44.1%) | 12 (0.0%) |
| Kenmore | $1,335,143 (+27.2%) | 37 (+23.3%) | 6.4 (+52.4%) | 11 (-26.7%) |
| Woodinville | $1,442,138 (-17.3%) | 27 (-18.2%) | 5.6 (+36.6%) | 12 (-7.7%) |
| Kirkland | $1,502,739 (-0.3%) | 38 (+11.8%) | 4.9 (+44.1%) | 12 (-25.0%) |
Source: NWMLS and local showing data. October 2026 compared with October 2025.
Four to six months of inventory is considered a balanced market. Bothell, Woodinville and Kirkland now sit in that range, and Kenmore has moved just past it. King County as a whole crossed that line in August, reaching 4.3 months after years of leaning toward sellers.
Buyers are selective, but they are not gone. Homes that sold in these four cities went pending after about a dozen showings, the same as or fewer than last October. Even at today’s rates, the right home at the right price still finds its buyer.
One caution on prices: monthly averages move with the mix of homes that closed. Treat Kenmore’s 27.2% rise and Woodinville’s 17.3% drop as a reason to look closer, not as a verdict on what your home is worth.
Rates and supply affect a $900,000 home in Bothell differently than a $1.5 million home in Kirkland. A private strategy session is where we run your numbers for your neighborhood and price range. Request your private real estate strategy session.
What to Do in the Greater Seattle Market Now
If you are selling
Today’s buyers are shopping by monthly payment, and they have more homes to compare. Your first few showings carry real weight, so price and preparation need to be right on day one.
Think beyond the list price, too. A seller credit toward a buyer’s rate can sometimes do more for their monthly payment than a similar price reduction. Every buyer’s loan is different, so that is worth running with the buyer’s lender before you decide.
If you are waiting for rates to fall before you list, weigh that against the competition you may face later. We walk through that decision in whether to sell your Seattle home now or wait until 2027.
If you are buying
Start with the payment, not the price. At each city’s October average price with 20% down, principal and interest at 7.24% comes to about:
- Bothell: $4,824 a month
- Kenmore: $7,279 a month
- Woodinville: $7,863 a month
- Kirkland: $8,193 a month
Then use what this market gives you. With more homes available and longer days on market in three of these four cities, you have more time to compare and more room to negotiate on price, credits and contingencies. Just have your financing ready, because the right home can still move quickly. If you are new to the conversation, our guide on whether Seattle buyers are waiving inspections is a helpful read.
If you are relocating to the Eastside for a new role, your timeline likely matters more than one Fed meeting. Buy on the numbers that work today, not on a rate forecast.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did the Fed raise rates in October 2026?
No. On October 28, 2026, the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. Two of the twelve voting members preferred a quarter-point increase.
Do mortgage rates go down when the Fed holds rates?
Not automatically. Mortgage rates follow long-term bond yields more closely than the Fed’s short-term rate. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average fell to 7.24% on October 29, the day after the decision, but it was already falling the week before.
Is it a buyer’s market on the Eastside right now?
Most of the Eastside is closer to balanced. Bothell, Woodinville and Kirkland had 4.9 to 5.6 months of supply in October 2026, and Kenmore had 6.4. Buyers have more choice and negotiating room, while well-priced homes still sell after about a dozen showings.
The Takeaway
The Fed’s pause did not change the Greater Seattle real estate market on its own. Rates are higher than a year ago, Eastside buyers have more choice, and well-priced homes are still selling. Your next move comes down to your payment, your timing and your neighborhood, not the next headline.
Ready to talk through your next move? Request a private real estate strategy session with Alina Araujo, Real Estate Advisor at Windermere Real Estate. Serving Bothell, Kenmore, Woodinville, Kirkland, and Greater Seattle.
About Alina Araujo
Alina Araujo is a Real Estate Advisor at Windermere Real Estate/East in Kirkland, Washington, serving Bothell, Kenmore, Woodinville, Kirkland, and North Seattle. With 14 years of experience, more than 200 homes sold, and a background in mortgage lending and hospitality, she brings a unique combination of empathy, strategy, and local expertise to every transaction. Alina is fluent in English, Spanish, and Russian and is a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist, Relocation Specialist, and Master Certified Negotiation Expert. Reach her at (206) 353-2290 or alinaaraujo.com.
